Premature Cancellation

In honor of the fact that Pushing Daisies, the most unique show currently on network television, is on the brink of cancellation, the Serial Detective has decided to whip out his pipe and take on a new case.

The Case: “On the Brink”
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The Facts:

Since time began, television has been plagued by shows being canceled too soon. It has been a part of daily life— like bread and the wheel— but why does it persist? Can’t all shows just get along?

Sadly, they can not. You see, there are only so many hours in prime time and only so many channels to choose from, leaving it to the networks to decide which shows die and which shows survive.

The networks base these decisions primarily on ratings data they receive from Nielsen Media Research, which tells them roughly how many people are watching a particular program. This information is then used by the networks to sell commercial space to advertisers, who rely on the Nielson data to know how many eyeballs their purchase will get. The Nielsen system is often criticized for being inaccurate and thus at fault for premature cancellation. Fans of canceled shows often argue that because their system is broken, shows that might be heavily watched are given the boot due to bad data. While this detective would agree that the Nielsen system is far from perfect, its rough estimates are not far off base. When week after week ratings show that Veronica Mars is pulling in low numbers, this won't be far off from reality. Just ask people on the street and you are guaranteed to find more people who watch Grey’s Anatomy than Journeyman.

That doesn’t mean shows like Veronica Mars and Journeyman are bad or don’t have the potential to succeed (before they were canceled, that is). It just means that the ones who decided their fates didn’t give the support that underdog shows need if they have the are going to succeed.

The Investigation:
Television has become a place where dozens of shows are canceled each year, sometimes after only a single episode airs. It’s become the norm for shows to be canceled right out the gate without being given the time or effort often needed to make a show successful. This is especially true for cult and genre shows that don’t fit easily into the laugh-track sitcom or criminal/medical case-of the-week procedural molds. Shows like Joss Whedon’s Firefly, which premiered to low ratings in 2002 and was heavily mistreated by the network before being canceled after 11 episodes, have become cultural symbols of the cancellation-happy networks, and a prime example of what’s wrong with TV.

Even future shows are now at risk of cancellation. After the handling of Firefly, Fox has once again scheduled Whedon’s next show Dollhouse for the Friday night death slot – where shows go to die (see the recent scheduling change for the late Lipstick Jungle). Fans are in an uproar, seeing as Fox had promised the sure-to-be-a-cult-hit Dollhouse the prime Mondays after 24 slot before banishing it to the end of the week. Websites have already popped up attempting to save Dollhouse from cancellation. And right there is the problem.


The Crime:
How can good TV (reality need not apply) survive when people are scared for a show’s survival before it even premieres? I’ve come across many viewers who have given up on watching creative and non-mainstream shows for fear they will become attached and then have their hearts broken.

When networks always have their fingers on the trigger, the television landscape becomes so fragile that many cancellations are the result of self-fulfilling prophesies. They said they’d be canceled so people didn’t come, and people didn’t come so they got canceled. How can networks expect to build audiences with critically acclaimed shows when they foster an environment where failure is expected? The Fox network has become a joke (see video above) for its habit of canceling cult shows right out the gate. It is because of their treatment of shows like Firefly and Wonderfalls that fans are already afraid of getting attached to Dollhouse.

It would do the networks good to remember that not all shows are going to be hits right out the gate. It takes time, patience, and hard work to make unique shows ratings hits. Just look at shows like Seinfeld and The X-Files – both genuine hits and pop culture icons that NBC and Fox used to build their brands – both shows that took a few seasons to find an audience. If Fox premiered The X-Files nowadays and it got the equivalent ratings that it got in 1993, it’d be hard to imagine the show lasting beyond 13 episodes.

Even more recent shows like The Office took a while to find their footing. It wasn’t until NBC paired the show with My Name Is Earl in its second season that The Office began to gain in the ratings and become a hit. In this case it wasn’t just time that helped The Office succeed but smart scheduling and a strong promotional push that saved the show. If you have good content – you need to let people know about it for them to come.

Right now, ABC is holding off on officially canceling Pushing Daisies because they are waiting to see how it does over the next two weeks, now that the election is over. But they are barely advertising it. A few weeks ago they didn’t even show a preview for the following week’s episode, leading viewers to perhaps assume that there would be no new episode aired (there was). Especially when it comes to unique shows like Pushing Daisies, networks really need to put work into getting people to give the show a try.

They also need to realize that for shows like this to succeed, they need to attract an audience outside the NCIS and According to Jim demographic. This means advertising that stretches beyond the TV set– into movie theaters, news papers, billboards, and online so as to attract new audiences. As Arrested Development’s David Cross argues in the video below, when you’ve got a show that’s critically acclaimed and multiple award winning, it’s not the fault of the show when it doesn’t get good ratings. It’s the fault of the network for not advertising and scheduling the show in a way that will attract more viewers.

The Verdict:
The problem is broadcasters are so single minded and focused on succeeding in the ratings now, that they end up canceling shows with promise without giving them a real chance. Because of this, networks fail to build long term identities as providers of creative and engaging content, driving viewers away with the idea that everything on TV is crap.

That’s not to say good shows don’t survive -- shows like Lost and The Office have proved this. But by favoring initial ratings success over fostering long-term creative and quality programming, networks are only serving to degrade their brand and alienate their viewers.

If you build it (and it’s good) they will come.

It just takes time. And patience. And effort.

Just imagine if The Wire had premiered on FOX. I rest my case.

David Cross (Tobias) on Arrested Development's Cancellation (NSFW)